Markets shrug off political risk, deal-flow picks up, what this week (9–15 Nov 2025) means for aspiring bankers
Global finance faced an unexpected silver lining: the prolonged risk of a U.S. government shutdown finally subsided, large banks unveiled more substantial deals, and macro watchers were beginning to raise red flags about liquidity and valuations. Anyone preparing for a career in investment banking should not neglect today’s news; it is your education. But what is important is how well you analyze the news, and this is precisely why mastering frameworks in an investment banking or financial modeling course will be beneficial.
Shutdown Ends, but Fog Remains
Image source: Reuters
After roughly five weeks, the longest U.S. government shutdown in U.S. history is finally coming to an end. Before the shutdown, the initial legislation to keep funding the government was passed on 12 November. However, analysts warned that while the shutdown has ended, the type of data that was removed (household surveys, delayed releases) means the economic picture is still murky.
For bankers, this means one thing: the cost of capital, and more importantly timing around the deal close may shift. During periods of cloudy data, asset values become more sensitive and deals that appeared insulated may have some hidden risks. This is the sort of issue that you create models for investing time in a financial modeling course to practice, sensitivity to missing data, lags in earnings, and changes in interest rates.
Stock markets rally (then wobble)
The euphoria from the shutdown created a rally – but again, that didn’t last long. In particular:
- Equity indices lifted shortly after on optimism that policy risk and uncertainty were fading.
- Just after that, tech shares took equity indices down with worries over stretched valuations and a lack of data.
From an Investment Banking viewpoint, this type of macro volatility is really important. Deals are pulled, pricing assumptions change and capital markets teams expand their consideration on underwriting. If you have taken an investment banking course, you know how to develop late-life deal models that cover “what if I have only hypothetical funding availability?” scenarios.
Deal spotlight: ABN AMRO buys NIBC Bank for €960 million
One of the week’s top headlines in deal-land: ABN AMRO announced it will acquire NIBC Bank from Blackstone for about €960 million (US $1.1 billion), with expected return on invested capital of 18% by 2029.
Key points to digest if you’re studying investment banking:
- Strategic rationale: ABN AMRO strengthens its Dutch mortgage & savings franchise and expands retail scale.
- Financial impact: The deal is priced at ~0.85× book value, adds ~70 bps to CET1 at closing, all details provided in the press release.
Execution timeline: Expected close in H2 2026, giving time for integration and synergies.
If you’re taking a financial modeling course, this deal is a great case study: model the acquisition premium, the cost synergies (e.g., discontinuing the Moneyou brand), and the accretion/dilution from combining the banks. Doing your homework here helps when you read job descriptions requiring “modeling of M&A transactions”.
Macro risk: liquidity & valuation stretch
Image source: Marketwatch
Even while deals are being done, a warning bell is ringing. Analysts say the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and central-bank watchers are growing uneasy about stretched valuations, increasing corporate leverage, and potential year-end funding stress.
In practical terms: if you’re modeling a leveraged buy-out or advising a sell-side client, you must build in downward scenarios, higher interest cost, weaker exit multiples, slower revenue growth. That’s why a good investment banking course will teach you not just the base case, but the “what if markets crack?” case too.
Local note: India banking flows
Meanwhile, in India the Reserve Bank of India launched a public campaign to help citizens reclaim unclaimed deposits from banks. While not big headline-deal-stuff, this kind of regulatory and trust-flow story matters for regional deal-teams, retail deposit flows affect bank valuations, and margin pressures feed into M&A rationale. For you, it means: don’t ignore the local/regional stories when you’re prepping for IB roles in India.
Take-away for students & young analysts
- Start building mini-case models. For example: take the ABN-NIBC deal, create a three-tab Excel sheet (Income + Synergies + Capital impact). It’s perfect practice for a financial modeling course.
- Network and talk to analysts/associates, mention deal names and your modeling assumptions. That shows maturity.
- Read daily: markets, deals, regulatory flows. Over time you’ll connect macro “big stuff” to micro deal logic.
- If you’re serious about a career in investment banking, consider both a strong investment banking course (covers deal mechanics, pitchbooks, workflows) and a dedicated financial modeling course (hands-on Excel). These are the tools other candidates may skip, you don’t want to.
Conclusion
The finance world moves fast, and the news cycle from 9-15 November proved exactly that, markets shifting overnight, major banks striking billion-euro deals, and global uncertainty shaping valuations. For students and young professionals aiming to enter investment banking, this isn’t just “news”; it’s a real-time learning lab. The more you understand how macro trends influence deals, how banks respond to volatility, and how modeling assumptions change with new data, the stronger your foundation becomes. Pairing this awareness with structured learning, through a well-designed investment banking course or financial modeling course, can give you the edge needed to stand out in a competitive field. The goal isn’t just to read the news, but to interpret it like a banker. And the best time to start doing that is now.
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